Raila Odinga’s Call for a Referendum: A Prelude to Office of Prime Minister
Raila’s role in government has no constitutional backing
Former Prime Minister Hon. Raila Amolo Odinga has recently rekindled the “Referendum debate” by intimating that Kenya will experience a national Referendum at some point in the future to determine an unspecified national issue. While the call attracted criticisms from known anti-Raila activists, the significance of the call might have eluded millions of Kenyans.
As we have said in one article, the Uhuru-Raila “handshake” was the product of a deal between “the two presidents” who suddenly discovered that they needed a reciprocal political approach to the then crisis in Kenya if their political futures were to be secured. With the Referendum call, national speculation that Uhuru Kenyatta may be strategizing to remain in government come 2022 may be closer to permanent confirmation. Why?
Through the handshake, Raila Odinga is in government but this position is not constitutionally recognized. Under the circumstances, Raila has no official authority under the current Constitution to propose a national Referendum on any issue. More so, the son of Odinga’s proposed Referendum has no known issues waiting to be resolved. There has been no debate in Parliament or County Assemblies about any pressing issue in Kenya that requires a Referendum so how does Raila Odinga suddenly wake one morning and suggest that there will be a Referendum some time in the future of Kenya?
Roping in the Moi family
The answer is that Raila knows something that neither the high-profile politicians, the general public nor the media knows. The diminutive subject that has not found expression in public debate is that before the handshake, the Kenyatta and the Odinga families sat down and recognized that they run gigantic empires in Kenya whose long-term survival over the generations cannot be guaranteed without the two families being in firm control of the state machine.
To widen their net, the two families have roped in the family of former President Daniel arap Moi which has joined the bandwagon because just like the Odinga and the Kenyatta families, the Moi family has a big stake in Kenya following 24 years of looting during the Moi-KANU dictatorship. To sustain the three dynasties, a Referendum will have to be forced down the throats of Kenyans to create the Office of Prime Minister for Uhuru Kenyatta so that when the son of Jomo finally calls it a day at State House in 2022, he will still have a significant role to paly in government to sustain the wealth which has been stolen by the Kenyatta families. What is the deal?
What is the deal?
Since 2007 when his Presidency was stolen, and following the covert stealing of two successive elections last year, Raila has understood that he needs to be closer to the state machine in order to be president of Kenya. What he did is that he used the wide support and following he built during the NASA euphoria then combined it with the threat of revolution under the National Resistance Movement (NRM) to force Uhuru Kenyatta to the negotiation table.
Since the establishment of the NRM, Uhuru was unable to govern the country due to the threat of revolution. During the negotiations, Uhuru had to accept that Raila will be President in 2022 in exchange for Raila’s support to enable the son of Jomo to clear his second term because he had already been sworn in.
In the process, Raila Odinga quietly dislodged William Ruto from the seat of power and although Ruto is still Deputy President, the DP is fundamentally sitting in a shell of an office. Ruto had effectively positioned himself close to the state machine that he knew, would be key if the DP were to rise to the presidency with or without votes. Now, that dream is slowing evaporating as the clock ticks towards 2022.
Opposition to Referendum will wither
Raila’s call for a referendum must, under the mentioned circumstances, be seen by Kenyans as a confirmation that Kenyans will experience a change of the Constitution to create a position of Prime Minister for Uhuru Kenyatta.
For now, there might be some opposition here and there for the sake of politics. However, what is unknown is that the season of Referendum will be big business for politicians who repackage themselves early as anti-Referendum elements because when push comes to shove, political opposition to the referendum will be up for sale.
The stronger the anti-Referendum formation, and the larger the mobilization, the higher will the price be. In short, Kenyans will witness politicians who will oppose the move in the beginning but at the last minute, these opportunists will switch sides on grounds that the idea of Prime Minister is good “for the future of the country” because ”it will enable more communities to be represented in government”. In short, opposition to the Referendum will be up for sale from left right and center.
How the Referendum will become a “National issue”
All the big tribes will then be seen to be in government with Uhuru Kenyatta representing the Kikuyu, Raila Odinga the Luo and Gideon Moi the Kalenjin. Kalonzo has already dropped his opposition to the handshake by moving closer to Raila politically so he may be brought in to represent the Kambas then any Luhya opportunist (and the hand-shakers are spoilt for choices) will be brought in to represent people from Ingo! Hassan Joho is already in the bag (having hosted Uhuru Kenyatta in Coast) while North Eastern is always on sale using endless fake Muslims loitering around the corridors of power.
This is how the call for a Referendum will become a “national issue” and with little Opposition because both Moses Wetangula and Musalia Mudavadi (who supposedly replaced Raila in the Opposition) are currently going nowhere. At best, the two Luhyas are members of an Opposition that is yet to start opposing the government.
