Decoding William Ruto’s Inexplicable Attack On Former PM Raila Odinga
Why is William Ruto attacking Raila odinga?
While on a recent “tangatanaga trip” in Mombasa, Deputy President William Ruto surprised all and sundry with a virulent attack on former Prime Minister, Raila Amolo Odinga who, in March this year, instituted a unilateral “handshake” with President Uhuru Kenyatta “to build bridges” of peace and political tranquility in Kenya.
The Ruto attack was as sudden as it was out of the blue. This is because after he understood that the Raila-Uhuru hand-shake was real and worth the paper it was written on, Ruto publicly supported the handshake after a period of dithering. The support for the handshake followed a “breakfast meeting” weeks after the handshake where Ruto hugged Raila and solemnly asked for forgiveness in case he had “wronged anybody”.
Although he never named Raila as the target of the forgiveness plea, it was obvious that the son of Odinga was the candidate because he has suffered the most out of Ruto’s politics of insults. Nevertheless, the hugging event at the breakfast meeting was interpreted by onlookers as a sign that finally, Ruto had found some kind of accommodation in the handshake quagmire and that the DP had finally joined the handshake bandwagon.
Then, after President Kenyatta confirmed a controversial hike on fuel tax with 8%, William Ruto joined Raila Odinga in encouraging Kenyans to accept the new fuel prices. The DP argued that the hike was good for Kenya because the government needed revenue to finance its activities. Ruto’s support was seen as yet another sign that the DP and the handshakes were indeed reading from the same script. It is against this background that Ruto’s abrupt about-turn to attack Raila Odinga became incomprehensible in the eyes of millions of Kenyans. Why has Ruto suddenly changed tact and decided to go for Raila Odinga’s political jugular?
One, William Ruto has finally accepted that the real content of the Raila-Uhuru handshake has more than meets the eye. According to pundits who are familiar with the intricacies of the “handshake theory”, the project is designed to make Raila Odinga President in 2022 as Uhuru becomes Prime Minister. According to this theory, Uhuru has had a major re-thinking on the question of his retirement because such a move will leave the Kenyatta empire extremely vulnerable to disintegration by hostile political forces who happen to take over government after Uhuru quits State House.
Anti-corruption crackdown and Ruto’s worries
According to those in the know, Uhuru, together with some of his closest handlers, arrived at the conclusion that given William Ruto’s ruthlessness witnessed during three subsequent election riggings (in 2013 and twice in 2017), the DP is the last person the Kikuyu elite can trust with state power. The dilemma was deepened by the fact that the country is not ready for another Kikuyu President in 2022 after Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta (all Kikuyus) held the presidency. Indeed, a third Kikuyu president in tandem could trigger a revolution in Kenya on grounds that Kenya doesn’t belong to the Kikuyu.
At a time when Raila had just been sworn in, Uhuru realized he was unlikely to hang on to power with Raila Odinga calling for a revolution in the Opposition through the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The solution was to strike a man-to-man deal with Raila so that Uhuru can remain within the power structure in the post 2022 arrangement. It is understood that there is no way of going around the problem apart from changing the Constitution to create the position of Prime Minister for Uhuru Kenyatta as had happened in Putin’s Russia. The problem with this arrangement is that it keeps William Ruto out of the power equation regardless of how many tangatanga rounds he makes across the country dishing looted funds to the public.
Ruto is therefore convinced that Raila’s handshake with Uhuru Kenyatta was a cleaver ploy to derail his presidential ambitions and ruin his political future at a time when he had positioned himself as the next president.
According to insiders in Ruto’s camp, the DP views the current crack-down on corruption as a strategy of Raila Odinga to build his profile as an anti-corruption crusader using the handshake as camouflage. Ruto apparently knows that since Uhuru Kenyatta is on his way out of the Presidency, one person who will benefit from the current anti-corruption crusade (which has netted big names) is Raila Amolo Odinga. If Raila is eyeing the Presidency, the high-profile anti-corruption activism will put him at a higher pedestal come electioneering time and Ruto will have no chance. Ruto may therefore have decided to go for Raila whom he views as a threat to his presidential ambitions.
Raila has taken over Ruto’s role in government
Another problem for Ruto is that he believes that the anti-corruption crusade may widen at a later stage to try and capture his own corruption networks as a way of dismantling his financial empire which he will need for any campaigns to occupy State House. With Raila working closely with Uhuru Kenyatta, the Ruto camp in increasingly finding it impossible to loot more funds from the State because the “free-for-all” policy that has been in place is systematically being quashed through decisions seen by the Ruto camp as the product of Raila Odinga’s underground machinations.
Come 2022, Ruto calculation is that he will be too broke to run an effective presidential campaign and in case the current anti-corruption crusade extends to look for the DPs corruption networks, the DP, together with all his henchmen, will be politically exterminated. For the DP, the only way to respond is to start fighting Raila Odinga early enough and to send signals to his supporters that all is not well at the eating table.
Most importantly, Ruto is fighting Raila Odinga because Raila has basically taken over Ruto’s role and position in government then expanded it in a way that the DP has no space for political ventilation. Ruto has seen Raila Odinga get closer to the state machine, an instrument which anybody who wants to win an election in Kenya must have.
Central voting block rejecting Ruto in favour of Raila
Consequently, Raila has become Ruto’s enemy number one because with Raila in government, all of Ruto’s political strategy of using “Raila’s down-fall” earlier projected by the Ruto camp after the 2017 election rigging, has been wiped out by the handshake. What is now left is a stronger Raila moving closer to state power while at the same time spreading rumours through informal conduits that he, Raila Odinga, will be on the ballot come 2022.
Finally, Ruto’s attack on Raila Odinga must be seen along the lines of a future Jubilee configuration without Ruto. Already, Ruto has directed his close allies to register a political party because of the understanding that he will be out of Jubilee in 2022 and if he doesn’t start early, he will soon be out of politics.
This is because his membership (and leadership) within the Jubilee Party can no longer be guaranteed after the handshake. It is notable that during his “building bridges” tours, Raila has concentrated his focus more in Central Province apparently to convince the Kikuyu that he, Raila, needs to be accepted by the Kikuyu because he is the next President.
William Ruto is a worried man
By attacking Raila Odinga, Ruto is also indirectly attacking Uhuru Kenyatta whom he cannot call by name because then, Jubilee will pass a vote of no confidence in the DP and he will be expelled from the Party because of rebellion or disloyalty to the Party. Although the DP is on Raila’s neck, he is treading carefully in strategy not to entangle Uhuru Kenyatta directly even though the handshake has placed both Uhuru and Raila at the same level of the DP’s perceived political enemies.
Despite Ruto’s future political plans being openly unknown because he hasn’t made any dramatic public moves after the handshake set-back, much will depend on how the DP handles new situations which will keep cropping up almost on a daily basis. The political witch-hunting has just begun but Ruto must be a very worried man.
